Posted on March 26 2011 by Aidan Opas

Euro 2012: Go Against the Minnows Again

It was a case of close but no cigar as I was just 2 goals away from landing a 232/1 correct score treble over the weekend.

But Slovakia struggled to a 1-0 win away to the lowest ranked team in Europe, Andorra, and scuppered my chances of beating on the bookies on International games yet again. France delivered with a 2-0 win, whilst Germany came good with a 4-0 home victory but alas, it wasn’t enough.

Undaunted I’m going for it again tomorrow night and I’ve got my eye on another couple of minnows to get a proper spanking.

If you’re not familiar with my favourite bet it’s simple; exploit the gulf in class between the top teams in Europe and the minnows by backing correct score results where the underdogs are likely to fail to score. The likes of San Marino, Andorra and Liechtenstein are miles behind the top teams and seldom score when they match up. That means it’s a case of choosing the right number of goals they’ll lose by. Simples.

So here’s a couple of games where the outcome isn’t in doubt, just how many goals will be in it…

Liechtenstein gave Scotland a real fright on their visit to Hampden Park last year but I can’t see the Czechs having the same problems that Craig Levein’s side did. The Czech’s took care of tomorrow’s opponents with a 2-0 away win in October but I expect they’ll bang in one or two more on home soil. I must admit I’m slighty nervy of the clean sheet in this one despite the apparent gulf in class. Liechtenstein have scored in their last four on the road but for this bet to land we’ll need them to draw a blank.

In World Cup 2010 Qualification Liechtenstein lost 4-0 in Germany and 3-0 in Russia so it’s probably best not to expect a cricket score against a side that seem to be improving. That said, the Czechs have a habit of sweeping aside lowly opposition and have scored 8 against Andorra and 7 against San Marino twice in their past 3 qualification campaigns. That makes it tricky to judge the spread on this one but I’m going to go with 3-0, 4-0 and 5-0 to the home side.

As usual the Dutch are flying in qualification Group E and can cement their spot at the top of the group with a win over 2nd placed Hungary. To be honest it’s a pretty poor group and Hungary’s current position is a bit misleading. Their 9 points from 15 have come at the expense of Finland , San Marino and Moldova but I expect they’d be also-rans in any other group.

The Dutch won 4-0 in Budapest on Friday and a similar result is expected tomorrow. In Klaas Jan Huntelaar they have the tournament’s top scorer to date and with so many attacking options available I can see some more goals in this one.

I think the Netherlands will more or less match Friday’s performance and I’m going with scores of 3-0, 4-0, 5-0.

Normally I go for 3 games in this bet but I’m struggling to make a case for any other minnows to take a hammering. I’ve left out Romania v Luxembourg as I think it’ll be closer than the odds suggest. Luxembourg are as big as 50/1 but Romania are at a bit of a low point and if there’s going to be a shock anywhere in Europe this could be it.

Sweden should take care of Moldova at home but the Swedes don’t score many and Moldova do have the capability to score away from home. The other stand-out game is Belgium at home to Azerbaijan. Again it should be a comfortable home win but I don’t know enough the Belgians, who are 2nd in their group behind Germany but I’m not prepared to but the bet on the line for them

So in this case I’ll be doubling up the correct scores and perming any 2 of the results. That makes 9 double bets in total.

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