Posted on July 5 2011 by Caitlin Carver

Odds to Win Wimbledon – Can Federer win a seventh Wimbledon

Tennis legend, Bjorn Borg, has cast his prediction on the 0 Wimbledon Championships, picking Roger Federer to win his seventh overall Wimby and rival Pete Sampras’s record at the tournament. What does Borg, winner of five Wimbys, base his prediction on but Federer’s love affair with Wimbledon and recent form at the French Open, where he finished runner-up to Rafael Nadal after handing an in-form Djokovic his first defeat on the season.

On balance, the prediction itself can hardly be called outlandish when Federer is widely accepted the King of Grass in today’s game. Why every June, when Wimbledon rolls around, conversation invariably centres on Federer – of which the critical question tossed around over strawberries and cream:

But in that question lies the problem. There is nothing wrong it, essentially; it’s an extension of tennis purists’ fancy whose touchstone is an obvious truth: beating Federer on grass is hard. How hard? Nigh impossible as the past eight years only two players have accomplished the task at SW9 – Rafael Nadal and Tomas Berdych .

Though, there is nothing wrong with it, it doesn’t make it right either. Particularly, when it belies the current status quo in the men’s game which serves up Nadal, as the World No. player and Djokovic, as the real-time No. player underlined by hot form. Both of whom come into the 0 Wimbledon having split the first two Grand Slams on the season and the former with the added boon of being the defending champion.

In which case then, isn’t the better or more appropriate question: To take it a step further, can he win it this year?

Any avid tennis enthusiast following the 0 season would have noticed: Djokovic’s formidable form, which began with a victory at the Australian Open and continued through six additional tournaments and spanned two surfaces before coming face to face with defeat at the French Open; to Federer in the semis, as it so happens. Nadal’s industrious form that took him to a sixth straight French Open earlier this month and two titles earlier in the season – Monte Carlo Masters and Barcelona. And Federer’s conspicuously topsy-turvy form that picked up a lone title in Doha at the beginning of the season but that has since wavered at the time of asking, at the ultimate hurdle.

Of course, taking Federer out of the equation is simply out of the question. It is hard to look past his record at Wimby, a record that is as impressive as it is enviable. By the same token, a six-time Wimbledon champion can win a seventh, surely. But in the context of this season, one can’t say he is the best bet to win Wimbledon this year.

Getting past Nadal or Djokovic or both, as the case may be, or even the elephant in the room that nobody is keen on making sweeping predictions about for fear of more disappointments – home fave Andy Murray – is going to be more difficult than most are having on, regardless that his feet will be floating above his favourite surface.

Granted, Roger Federer in collusion with Rafael Nadal together have imposed a duopoly at the Grand Slam level in the modern game, with Federer owning 6 titles and Nadal ten. And, since 003, only this pair has had the honour to reign over Wimbledon. The last 8 months however reveal a more representative Grand Slam breakdown: Nadal winning four while Federer and Djokovic one each.

Prior to 008, Federer winning Wimbledon was an almost foregone conclusion, the outlook bleak for the rest of the field, admittedly. Then Nadal did the unthinkable, dethroning Federer in an epic battle on the luscious lawns of the All England Club; to date, arguably, the best men’s singles final match at a Grand Slam.

Overthrowing Federer from his Kingly perch in a marathon, roller-coaster, five-setter for the ages to win his first Wimby was a pivotal moment in the tournament and although Federer did reclaim his throne in 009 when he beat Roddick in another epic final, Nadal returned the following year to pick up his second Wimby. Something else happened at Wimby that year, Federer lost for the first time in six years in the quarterfinal stage of a Grand Slam when he was defeated by Berdych.

Fact, Federer’s odds at a Grand Slam have weakened in recent years. The slide began in 008, when Nadal beat him at Wimbledon to win his first Grand Slam other than the French Open, and then, continued when he lost to Nadal at the 009 Australian Open. The pronounced plunge however occurred precisely in the wake of the untimely defeat at his beloved Wimbledon last year.

And that shine continues to diminish this season, for all the promise he showed at the French Open, because not only has he not won a Grand Slam since the 00 Australian Open but he’s only won one title this season.

Of course, this doesn’t mean that Borg’s prediction will not come true; Federer just might pull it off and nobody would be surprised. But, let’s face it, Federer winning a seventh Wimbledon or another Grand Slam for that matter is just not looking as certain as it once was. Certainly, not this year with Djokovic making huge strides and Nadal maintaining his solid form. And that is the uncomfortable truth that all Federer fans must come to terms with sooner than later.

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