Posted on December 2 2011 by Aidan Opas

College Football Pick: Syracuse +10 over Pittsburgh

Bowl eligibility is at stake in a Big East matchup Saturday afternoon when the Syracuse Orange (5-6 overall, 1-3 away) pay a visit to the Pittsburgh Panthers (5-6 overall, 4-3 home) at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh, PA at 12:00 Noon ET in a game televised nationally on ESPN2.Pittsburgh had high hopes for this season after bringing in a new offensive minded head coach in Todd Graham, who guided some prolific offenses at Tulsa in recent years and was the polar opposite of the conservative Dave Wannstedt, who was fired after last season. Say what you will about Wannstedt, but at least he directed Pittsburgh to bowl games the last three years, something that Graham is in jeopardy of not doing if Pitt loses here.Still, the Panthers are probably not on this position because of Coach Graham but probably because of another Graham, running back Ray, who was one of the best running backs in the country but was lost for the season with a serious knee injury suffered in a victory over Connecticut four games ago. The Panthers have lost two of their three games since he went down, but last week was the most crushing defeat of all.Pittsburgh was still in line for a possible Big East Championship and the automatic BCS Bowl bid thates with it, and they went into West Virginia and built leads of 14-0 and 20-7 before allowing the Mountaineers toe back and take their first lead of the game with six minutes left, handing Pitt a 21-20 defeat that in one swoop took the Panthers from a possible BCS bowl appearance to needing to win this season finale just for a chance to play on any bowl.Syracuse seemed to be certainly bowl bound when it began the year 5-2, but it has now lost four straight games to fall to 5-6, putting the Orange in the same position that the Panthers are in, needing this win to qualify for a bowl. That makes taking these double-digit points very attractive to us on the college football odds, especially with Pittsburgh probably being in the worse state of mind.The point spread at 5 Dimes for this contest has Syracuse as a nice +10 underdog at current odds of -102. Pittsburgh offense vs. Syracuse defensePittsburgh quarterback Tino Sunseri has been inconsistent in Graham’s version of the West Coast offense, as he has looked great at times such as when he passed for over 400 yards in the Connecticut game but has looked lost at other times, holding on to the ball too long in an offense that by its design requires a quick release. Thus, the bottom line is that Sunseri is averaging only 6.73 yards per pass attempt, a far cry from the great averages that the Tulsa quarterbacks has under Graham, and Tino has as many interceptions as he does touchdown passes with nine apiece. The loss of running back Graham has also had an adverse affect on Sunseri, as his deficiencies have be more obvious as Pitt has started to rely on the passing game more. Now, one would think that Sunseri should succeed in this game vs. a Syracuse defense that has collapsed in recent weeks, and one that is allowing an atrocious 9.1 yards per pass attempt on the road. Most of that poor pass defense on the road came out of conference though, as the Orange allowed over 300 passing yards to both Matt Barkley of USC and Ryan Griffin of Tulane, and the pass defense is allowing a better 7.5 yards per attempt overall. The key here however is that Syracuse can concentrate on stopping the pass, as since the Panthers no longer pose much of a threat with the run with Graham down and Syracuse only allowing 3.7 yards per rush as it is, the Orange will not need tomit extra players in the box to stop the run. Thus, look for an improved pass defense here with more mixed coverages, something that has befuddled Sunseri for much of this year.Syracuse offense vs. Pittsburgh defenseOrange quarterback Ryan Nassib does not have eye-popping numbers, but he has been very efficient,pleting 61.6 percent of his passes while tossing 21 touchdown passes and only seven interceptions. The ground game has been more sporadic, but Syracuse will probably still have a 1000-yard rusher as Antwon Bailey enters this game with 998 rushing yards and six rushing touchdowns. The Syracuse offense was fine between the 20s last week in a 30-13 loss to Cincinnati, accumulating 373 total yards for the game, but the offense continually bogged down in the red zone and converted only four of 15 third downs. The Orange even went for it on fourth down twice and failed both times. A repeat performance by the offense could lead to more scoring this time around. Pittsburgh has had a solid defense this year, but there has been some slippage in the last three games, as the Panthers are allowing 4.0 yards per rush in those gamespared to 3.4 yards per rush for the whole season, as well as 7.0 yards per pass attemptpared to 6.6 yards per pass for the year. Those three games havee since Graham was injured, so perhaps the Panthers have been playing with less intensity with the realization that their BCS chances went down too.The emotional edgeWe actually think that Syracuse has a big emotional edge here. As mentioned, Pittsburgh could be in letdown mode after letting its BCS chance slip away at West Virginia in the final minutes, whereas Syracuse would actually relish the chance to go bowling again, especially after a four-game losing streak, as that would make them two for two in bowl appearances under Coach Doug Marrone after not going to a bowl in the five years prior to his hiring last season.ConclusionSyracuse should be the team playing with more desire, and that in itself makes the Orange very dangerous double-digit underdogs.College Football Pick: Syracuse +10 (-102)

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